To some extent, predicting the Oscars in 2017 requires predicting Donald Trump.

Oscar predictors — the types of folks who look over the list of movies released this year, then attempt to deduce what’s in and what’s out for the Academy Awards — have been unusually circumspect in 2017.

Until Steven Spielberg’s upcoming journalism drama The Post (starring Academy favorites Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks) screened to a warm, largely positive reaction, there wasn’t really anything that could be dubbed a “frontrunner.” What’s more, any time somebody tried to dub something the frontrunner, it was far too easy to poke holes in that theory.

Dunkirk? Too unusually constructed and cold, despite its war movie roots. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri? Too tonally scattered. Lady Bird? Too tiny. The Shape of Water? It’s about a fish-man. Get Out? A horror movie, for God’s sake. If there’s any genre the Academy’s never quite cottoned to, it’s horror. (I could go on.)

Even The Post, which is classic Oscar-friendly material if ever there was classic Oscar-friendly material, seems to many like it might be too conventional. Academy voters have been more adventurous in the 2010s, lest you forget that just last February they passed over La La Land, a razzle-dazzle musical about kids pursuing their showbiz dreams while falling in love, for Best Picture in favor of Moonlight, an achingly beautiful gay coming-of-age story told in three parts.

Moonlight’s win was one of the biggest Oscar upsets ever, and it’s shaken up the prediction game in ways that are both exciting and a little nerve-wracking. If The Post just goes on to win six or seven Oscars come 2018, then we’ll know the Academy is still the Academy we’ve always known. But if, say, Read More Here