But this time, the error was on the side of the Democrats.
The polls were wildly off in the Virginia election.
Democrat Ralph Northam had a lead over Republican Ed Gillespie throughout the race — but a lead that notably tightened to 1 or 2 points by Election Day. Pundits and pollsters were all in agreement: Virginia’s polls were leaning toward Northam, but the race was a toss-up.
But on Tuesday night, Democrats scored a landslide victory, taking the governor’s race by 8 points and winning far more delegate seats than expected.
The blue wave reflected a state that not only had denied Donald Trump a Virginia victory in 2016 but also continues to view the president extremely unfavorably. This year, the poll average in the Virginia governor’s race was off by 5.3 percent, Tom Bonier, a Democratic pollster tweeted Wednesday morning. To put that in context, polling was only off by about 1 percent in the 2016 election.
So the poll average was off in the VA Gov race by 5.3%, as compared to only 1.1% in the ’16 Presidential. Yet because the polls predicted the winner in VA, we probably won’t talk about what we’re still doing wrong.
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 8, 2017
That the polls were wrong likely won’t get as much attention this year, because they happened to be wrong in the correct direction — showing Northam with a slight lead.
Nevertheless, exactly one year after the 2016 presidential election, a race that made social scientists and pollsters reconsider their fundamental models for evaluating the political climate, the polls are still epically off. In fact, they were more off in Virginia this year than in the 2016 presidential election.
In fact, the poll average missed the margin in Virginia by more than it did Read More Here